Tandy On Real Estate

Tag

Millennials

Today’s Homebuyer and Trends Effecting the Housing Market

Despite the reports of Millennials buying homes, there is an interesting trend happening in our housing market. We have homeowners who are content to stay in their current homes and an aging homebuyer. Let’s take a closer look.

American moves are the lowest on record.

According to the Wall Street Journal homeowners are staying in their homes longer which is slowing homes sales. This despite of favorable interest rates. The U.S Census Bureau reports that Americans are moving at the lowest record since the Bureau starting keeping track in 1947, especially millennials. America has always been the land of opportunity and throughout history Americans have moved to where the opportunity is. According to the New York Times Americans are “Frozen in place, moving at the lowest rate on record” with only 9.8 percent of Americans having moved in the year ending in March. In the 1950s, about one-fifth of the American population moved each year. 

American migration is typically higher among the young who move to the city and growing suburbs where there are jobs and rent is reasonable. With rents in cities exploding and dwindling housing inventory movement is not as much of an option with the exception of college graduates. Economists are now studying the declining American mobility, and determining if this is a good or bad thing. If anything, it is an expected trend to see among the baby boomers, but necessarily one we expected to see across the board.

The median age of homebuyers is rising.

The median age of U.S. homebuyers is now 47, an increase of 8 years since the financial crisis according to REALTOR.com. The median age of first-time home buyers has increased to 33, the oldest in records dating back to 1981, according to a National Association of REALTORS® report. The median age of all buyers also hit a fresh record, 47, increasing for a third straight year — and well above the median age of 31 in 1981.

Today’s Homebuyer Snapshot

(According to The National Association of REALTORS® Profiles of Homebuyers)

  • First-time buyers made up 33 percent of all home buyers, holding steady from last year’s 33 percent.
  • The typical buyer was 47 years old this year, and the median household income for 2018 rose again this year to $93,200.
  • Sixty-one percent of recent buyers were married couples, 17 percent were single females, nine percent were single males, and nine percent were unmarried couples.
  • Twelve percent of home buyers purchased a multigenerational home, to take care of aging parents, because of children over the age of 18 moving back home, and for cost-savings.
  • Ninety-one percent of recent home buyers identified as heterosexual, three percent as gay or lesbian, one percent as bisexual, and five percent preferred not to answer.
  • Twenty percent of recent home buyers were veterans and three percent were active-duty service members.
  • At 29 percent, the primary reason for purchasing a home was the desire to own a home of their own.

Student debt and housing market

A recent survey from Clever Real Estate, an online real estate marketplace, reports 48% of undergraduates are putting off buying a home because of their loans – delaying home ownership by an average of seven years. Contributing factors to this are student debt, a gig economy (independent workers being paid by the gig versus a salary or hourly wage), and influences of growing up in the recession.

“Americans agree that 28 is the ideal age to buy a home; however, the median college graduate with student debt doesn’t expect to be able to afford a home until age 35,” Clever writes. “In contrast, students with no student debt plan to buy a home by age 30. This delay has a significant impact on the housing market because college graduates want to buy homes.”

Forbes reports that student loan debt is now higher than ever with more than $1.5 Trillion in student loan debt. Student loan debt ranks higher than both credit card debt and auto loans, and is now the second highest debt with only mortgage loans ranking higher. Let’s take a closer look at these stats:

Student Loan Snapshot:

  • Total Student Loan Debt: $1.56 trillion
  • Total U.S. Borrowers with Student Loan Debt: 44.7 million
  • Student Loan Delinquency or Default rate: 11.4% (90+ days delinquent)

Alternative ways to home ownership

Reade Pickert of Bloomberg states, “A nationwide shortage of affordable housing, coupled with lower mortgage rates, has stoked prices in cities from the coasts to the heartland. At the same time, student loans and other debts make it harder for Americans to save tens of thousands of dollars for a down payment, while tight lending standards can make getting a bank loan difficult for borrowers with less-than-stellar credit scores.” But this will not stop home ownership as buyers are now looking for alternative ways to homeownership like using gifts from family or friends for down payments, buying homes with roommates, and buying a fixer upper as a first-time home. New LendingTree research shows an overwhelming majority of homebuyers with student loan debt would consider purchasing a fixer upper. These homes typically have lower price points when compared to similar properties that are move-in ready.

Despite student debt we still have a strong housing market, and buyers and potential buyers who believe in the American Dream and home ownership. According to TransUnion, at least 8.3 million first-time home buyers will enter the mortgage market between 2020 and 2022, due to low unemployment, record-low mortgage rates and rising wages. Senior Economist, George Ratiu, of Realtor.com predicts overall buyer demand will remain very robust, particularly at the entry level, in 2020. The largest population cohort in the country (those born in 1990) will turn 30 in 2020, accounting for 4.8 million millennials hitting the traditional peak home buying age. As a group, millennials (those born 1981-1997) will take more than half of all mortgages next year. For the first time ever, millennials’ share of mortgage originations will surpass 50 percent in the spring, outnumbering gen X and baby boomers combined. The last generation to take more than half of all purchase originations was gen X in 2013, just six years ago. Accordingly, other generations’ footprint will continue to contract, with gen X and baby boomers taking 32 and 17 percent of mortgage originations respectively. Only time will tell.

To receive more posts like this from Tandy on Real Estate updates direct to your inbox, please subscribe.

SOURCES:

The Student Loan Bubble and Path Forward for Graduates

America’s total household debt increased by $193 billion (1.5%) to $13.15 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2017 according to the Federal Reserve. Student loan debt ranks as the second largest household debt falling behind mortgage, and in front of auto loans, credit cards and home equity loans.

Household Debt and Credit Developments as of Q4 2017

*Change from Q3 2017 to Q4 2017

**Change from Q4 2016 to Q4 2017

A closer look at student loan debt.

44.5 million student loan borrowers in the U.S. owe a total of $1.5 trillion as of March 2018 according to the Federal Reserve. And, the average college graduate with a bachelor’s degree left school with $28,446 in student debt in 2016 according to Institute of College Access & Success. In 2018, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reports 37.5% of Americans with student loan debt are under the age of 30. Compared to 62.5% of Americans with student loan debt are 30 years old or older.

CNBC recently reported “average debt at graduation is currently around $30,000, up from $10,000 in the early 1990s. The country’s outstanding student loan balance is projected to swell to $2 trillion by 2022, and experts say a large portion of it is unlikely to ever be repaid; nearly a quarter of student loan borrowers are currently in a state of delinquency or default.”

Although outstanding student loan balances have increased, student loan delinquency flows declined slightly but remain at a high level, according to the Federal Reserve. NerdWallet reports the following status on student loan repayments, painting a grim picture for some borrowers.

  • 3.3 million federal loan borrowers have loans in deferment.
  • 2.6 million federal loan borrowers have loans in forbearance.
  • 4.7 million federal loan borrowers have loans in default.

Will the student loan bubble burst?

Robert Farrington with Forbes explains how the student loan bubble will not burst, but instead will cause a slow market stagnation that we will see over time. “Student loans are a collateral on earnings, as long as there is earning potential, the ability to have the loans quickly “pop” via any financial mechanism is rare. Yes, bankruptcy for student loan debt is possible, but once again – rare… The net effect of this student loan crisis won’t be a bubble popping – it will be slow drag on the economy.” Discretionary income that would traditionally go to consumer goods and household spending stimulated by homeownership will instead be going to student debt repayment because there simply is not a discretionary income. This could cause a decline for some industries.

How student loans effects home ownership.

Student debt significantly cuts into future homeowners’ budgets and for many, making it difficult to buy a home. According to the Federal Reserve for every 10 percent in student loan debt a person holds, their chance of home ownership drops 1 to 2 percentage points during their first five years after school. According to the National Association of REALTORS more than 80 percent of non-homeowner younger millennials (born between 1990-1998) cite student loan debt as delaying a home purchase, compared to 86% of older millennials (born between 1980-1989).

What does this mean for graduates today?

NerdWallet recently analyzed the most recent numbers and issues concerning graduates, and conducted a survey by The Harris Poll in May 2018. In analyzing the data, Brianna McGurran, NerdWallet Student Loans Expert, believes the outlook for graduates is not gloom and doom stating, “New grads are in the best position of all: They have the chance to save smart from the beginning.”

Here is what they found for the Class of 2018 Money Outlook:

  • Percentage of recent graduates with student debt: 45%
  • Percentage of recent graduates with student debt who believe they’ll be able to pay it off in 10 years: 39%
  • Age at which graduates of the Class of 2018 can expect to retire: 72
  • Age at which the Class of 2018 can expect to purchase their first home with a 20% down payment: 36

As with any loan, whether for a student loan or a home, approach it as an educated consumer, here are some tips for paying off student loans for future graduates.

To receive more posts like this from Tandy on Real Estate updates direct to your inbox, please subscribe.

SOURCE:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2018/10/01/get-an-education-even-if-it-means-borrowing
https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt/
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/databank.html
https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/about/data-center/student/portfolio
https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/2018-new-grad-money-outlook/
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/21/the-student-loan-bubble.html
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2016/files/2016010pap.pdf
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2016/files/2016010pap.pdf
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2018/12/12/student-loan-bubble-wont-burst/#3f9bf00f6768
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2018/rp180213
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2018/11/27/student-loans-and-bankruptcy/#41ee1633f45d
https://thecollegeinvestor.com/9664/student-loan-bubble-looks-like/
https://www.bankrate.com/loans/student-loans/repay-college-loans-fast/

Millennials dive into home ownership

I believe that there are many misconceptions when it comes to Millennials. We have all heard that Millennials are renting longer or live with their parents for a longer amount of time than previous generations, and that they have issues with student debt. These factors, to the general eye, would make it appear that Millennials are not interested in home ownership. But, from my research and experience, this is only part of the story.

So, what gives? According to NerdWallet and their review of recent industry surveys and data from government agencies and corporations “a majority of millennials would prefer owning to renting, but they appear to be postponing homeownership because of real and perceived difficulties in affording it. In fact, our analysis found that millennials, those born from 1981 to 1997, look upon owning a home just as favorably as previous generations.”

Here are a few facts on Millennials and homebuying from NerdWallet:

  • U.S. millennials total 66 million individuals and 24 million independent households.
  • The median age for first-time homebuyers has remained virtually unchanged for the past 40 years: In 2015 it was 31 years old, compared with 30.6 in 1970-74.
  • Two-thirds of millennials haven’t reached that homebuying age of 31, and 22% are under 25 years old.
  • Millennials are renting for a median of six years before buying, compared with a median of five years for renters in 1980.
  • Millennials are expected to form 20 million new households by 2025.
  • The median income for a millennial older than 25 is $38,220.
  • Meanwhile, the number of millennials living with their parents has increased nearly 15% from 2006 to 2013.

Here are a couple positive signs:

  • According to Javier Vivas, manager of economic research for Realtor.com, “Millennials’ home search is on.” Millennials recently became the dominant group of users searching for homes on Realtor.com.
  • Both the National Association of REALTORS® and Gallup Poll surveys of Millennials have shown that Millennials believe real estate is a good long-term investment, that they intend to become homebuyers and are increasingly choosing to buy a home.
  • Americans owe over $1.4 trillion in student loan debt with the average Class of 2016 graduate having $37,172 in student loan debt, up six percent from last year according to com. This can be a contributing factor to delaying home ownership as just released by CNN Money. This, of course, is not good news. The positive side of it is that “with student debt on the rise, there’s been a lot of speculation about whether the cost of a college degree hurts an individual’s ability to buy a home,” says NerdWallet’s Ling. “From what we’ve seen, getting a four-year degree or higher is actually positively associated with homeownership — even when accounting for debt.”
  • CNN Money reports that, “Millennials are the largest group of homebuyers. In January, Millennials represented around 45% of all purchase loans, up from 42% the same month in 2016.” Per CNN Money, Millennials are diving into home ownership, but “the struggle can be real”.

When NerdWallet asked Millennials what they believed were the biggest obstacles to getting a mortgage, millennial renters gave these answers, in order:

  • Insufficient credit score or history
  • Affording the down payment or closing costs
  • Insufficient income for monthly payments
  • Too much existing debt

For many millennials, the data NerdWallet analyzed reveal that these reasons may be more perception than reality. The important thing is to look at your financial position, make positive changes/plans to prepare for responsible home ownership through personal fiscal responsibility.

Millennials have a few things to consider when buying a home:

  • Increasing rents make home ownership more attractive. Money saved was the reason 21% of millennials chose to buy a home per Ellie Mae’s Owners’ Key Insights.
  • This buying season Millennial first-time homebuyers will be up against seasoned repeat homebuyers who have already started their home search last year, so it is good to start the search early and be prepared. Make sure you set your budget and get pre-qualified. Check out the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau(CFPB) Home Loan Toolkit to get started.
  • The home inventory shortage means rising home prices which bring into account home affordability. In response to what is stopping you from buying a home 45% haven’t saved enough for a down payment per Ellie Mae’s 2017 Borrower Insights Survey. CNN Money recommends that Millennials move home for two years to save money, reduce their debt and save for down payments.
  • Lending requirements have tightened. Understand your budget and what you will need to save for your down payment. Click here for Zillow’s Home Affordability Calculator.
  • Interest rates are great for home buying. Rates have gone up 3 times since 2015, but even with these increases rates still make home ownership very attainable.

I am excited to see the rise in home search and ownership in millennials. As with anyone approaching home ownership, it is good to make sure you are an educated buyer, that you understand what you are getting into, and that you have someone you trust to work with as you embark on your journey.

To receive updates direct to your inbox, please subscribe.

SOURCE:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/03/real_estate/millennial-homebuying/index.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/190850/americans-say-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/reports/2017/2017-home-buyer-and-seller-generational-trends-03-07-2017.pdf
https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/millennials-and-homebuying/
http://elliemae.com/millennial-tracker
http://elliemae.com/borrower-insights
http://elliemae.com/about/news-reports/press-releases/homeowners-seeking-both-a-high-tech-and-human-touch-mortgage-experience-ellie-mae-2017-borrower-insights-survey-finds
https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-calculator/house-affordability/
https://s3.amazonaws.com/files.consumerfinance.gov/f/201503_cfpb_your-home-loan-toolkit-web.pdf
http://www.realtor.com/realestateagents
https://studentloanhero.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/
http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/13/pf/college/student-debt-home-ownership/index.html

Self-made millionaire: Not buying a home is the single biggest millennial mistake

According to CNBC not buying a home is the single biggest mistake of a millennial. Financial author David Bach says that, “millennials are making a big mistake by not owning a home.” According to his calculations today’s homeowner is on average 38 times wealthier than a renter.

Rent vs. buy
There is a lot of debate out there on if it is better rent or buy. According to Trulia buying is 28% less expensive than renting nationwide. For those of you in the Austin-Round Rock area buying a home is 45% cheaper than renting.

Trulia makes this calculation based on the following assumptions: a $1,650 monthly rent, $230,000 target home price, staying in the home for 7 years, a 25% income tax rate, and a 3.65% mortgage rate.

Zillow also offers a breakeven horizon calculator to calculate how many years it will take before the cost of buying will equal the cost of renting. For Austin, TX, using the same $1,650 monthly rent and $230,000 target home price, after 1 year and 11 months, buying will be cheaper than renting when you out 20% down. If you put 10% down, after 2 years and one month buying will be cheaper than renting.

Making the investment
Bach argues that you have to live somewhere for the rest of your life, so you might as well invest in a home that you could own permanently. By the time you spend all of your money on rent, you come up empty handed with no investment.

For those considering home ownership for the first time, here are a few tips offered by the financial author.

Tips for first-time homeowners:

  • Calculate your costs.
  • Your first home expense can be minimized with a studio or smaller home.
  • Make sure your total monthly housing cost does not take up more than 30% of your take home pay.
  • Put down at least 10%; The bigger your down payment the lower your loan rate.
  • Borrow 10-20% less than the bank’s willing to lend you.
  • Don’t buy if you plan to move in less than 5 years.

Remember, your first home is more than likely not going to be your dream home. This is ok. Get in a home and begin to build your wealth. Bach says that by the time you are in your 50’s or 60’s you should be able to retire off the money from your home.

The decision is yours
As with any financial decision you make, it depends on your personal situation. Home ownership needs to be the right decision for you and one that you enter into both prepared and cautiously. It takes financial stability and responsibility to be a homeowner, and you need to fully understand the cost associated with your home. Make sure you partner with a trusted lender to understand your financial situation, a REALTOR® as you embark on this decision, and title company to help you through the homebuying process. The American Land Title Association offers a Home closing 101 to help you through this process.

With home prices remaining moderate with only slight increases and continuing low interest rates, my bet is that the American Dream is still a safe bet – no matter what generation you are.

To receive updates direct to your inbox, please subscribe.

SOURCE:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/30/self-made-millionaire-buy-a-home.html
http://davidbach.com/
https://www.trulia.com/rent_vs_buy/
https://www.zillow.com/rent-vs-buy-calculator/
http://www.homeclosing101.org/

 

© 2020 Tandy On Real Estate — Powered by WordPress

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑