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The Impact of Energy on Texas

Texas leads the nation in energy production. Across every part of the great state of Texas there is energy potential and production. With the second-largest population and the second-largest economy in the nation after California, second only to Alaska in land area, Texas is not playing second in the energy sector.

According to The Perryman Report, “The energy sector has long been a major component of the Texas economy, generating substantial economic activity and opportunities. For more than a century, the state’s vast reserves of oil and natural gas have contributed to business activity and job creation. Production has risen sharply in recent years, and with improved recovery on each well, the cyclical nature of oil and natural gas exploration and production has diminished. In addition, US exports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are rising. In fact, the growth in production in the Permian Basin is creating a global transformation of petroleum market.”

Texas production has risen dramatically in recent years, up about 500% since 2010. These increases began after decades of falling production and talk of “peak oil”, Perryman reported. The increased production levels have led to a reduction in the need for imports. The Houston Chronicle recently reported, “That surge in production has helped drive oil imports to the U.S. Gulf Coast to the lowest level in more than three decades, according to a report from the Energy Department. In March, imports to the Gulf Coast averaged 1.8 million barrels a day, a more than 70 percent decline since 2007.”

Texas Has More than Oil Potential

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, “The state provides more than one-fifth of U.S. domestically produced energy. Crude oil and natural gas fields are present across much of the state, and coal is found in bands that cut across the eastern Texas coastal plain and in other areas in the north-central and southwestern parts of the state. Texas also has abundant renewable energy resources and is first in the nation in wind generated electricity. With a significant number of sunny days across vast distances, Texas is also among the leading states in solar energy potential. Geothermal resources suitable for power generation are present in East Texas, and uranium, the fuel for nuclear reactors, has been found in South Texas.”

Texas’ Energy Stats Highlights

  • Texas leads the nation in crude oil reserves and production. The state has two-fifths of the U.S. crude oil proved reserves and produces more than 40% of the nation’s crude oil, more than any other state and exceeding that of all the federal offshore producing areas
  • One-fourth of the nation’s proved natural gas reserves and about three-tenths of the 100 largest natural gas fields are located, in whole or in part, in Texas. The state leads the nation in natural gas production, accounting for nearly one-fourth of U.S. gross withdrawals in 2017
  • Texas produces more electricity than any other state, generating almost twice as much as Florida, the second-highest electricity-producing state. 
  • Renewable energy sources, primarily wind, contribute more than one-sixth of the net electricity generated in Texas. The state provided almost one-fifth of the total U.S. utility-scale electricity generation from all nonhydroelectric renewable sources in 2018, more than any other state.

The Nation’s Standing

The U.S continues to bolster its position as a global leader in oil production and reserves. According to ETF Trends, the U.S. is producing the most crude oil in the world, and we now have the largest reserves. “In its latest annual report of world recoverable oil resources, Rystad Energy finds that the United States currently holds 293 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources,” reports OilPrice.com. “This is 20 billion barrels more than Saudi Arabia and almost 100 billion barrels more than Russia.”

The Houston Chronicle reported, “U.S. oil production likely hit a record of 12.5 million barrels per day in May — about 200,000 barrels per day above Energy Department estimates — and should grow to 13.4 million barrels a day by the end of this year, according to the Norwegian energy research firm Rystad Energy. By the end of next year, U.S. oil production should hit 14.3 million barrels a day.”

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SOURCES:

The Perryman Report

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/Documents/research/energy/energycharts.pdf?la=en

U.S. Energy Information Administration – https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=TX

Houston Chronicle – https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/As-Texas-oil-production-surges-crude-imports-13952600.php

ETF Trends – https://www.etftrends.com/alternatives-channel/guess-what-country-has-the-worlds-largest-oil-reserves/

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1906.aspx

OilPrice.com – https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-US-Cements-Its-Position-As-World-Leader-In-Oil-Reserves.html

Texas Growth Reports

The Perryman Report and Texas Letter talks about:

• Jobs – Texas added 39,600 jobs in April for a total of 332,300 jobs over the previous 12 months,
• Energy – Advances in technology in an amazingly short period of time have reduced the cost to produce oil.  Three years ago $70 per barrel almost shut down the industry.  Today that price accelerates an ongoing surge.  Production is so strong that the Permian Basin will run out of pipeline capacity within the next 3 to 4 months until new pipelines can be completed in 2019.
• Business – Texas again winning the top award for corporation location and expansion projects from the Site Selection Magazine.
• Population – Texas is projected to reach a population of 30 million in the next 4 years.

Major Metro Areas Growth

Major Metro Areas Growth

The Federal Reserve of Dallas Texas Employment Forecast projects a whopping 412,600 jobs will be added to the state this year with a job growth rate of 3.3%.  The 2018 forecast is significantly above 2017 job growth of 1.9 percent. The Fed’s Leading Index for Texas continues it’s positive three year trend after recovering from the downturn caused by the drop in the price of crude oil.

TX Job Forecast 6-25-18

TX Job Forecast 6-25-18

The state of Texas’ South Region

Texas is almost like a country in itself with 12 economic regions including: High Plains, West, Northwest, Metroplex, Upper East, Capital, Central, Southeast, Upper Rio Grande, Alamo, Gulf Coast and South.

Today I would like to take a look at what we Texans call “the Valley”, to look at our economy and job growth.

The much talked about border towns of Texas are growing, as is the opportunity for jobs. Texas’ South Region is comprised of the 28 counties covering the Gulf Cost and Mexico border and offers a “young, growing workforce”. According to the Texas Comptroller, “the South Region added more than 138,600 jobs from 2004 to 2014, led by Hidalgo County. Its 26 percent job growth accounted for 37 percent of the region’s net new jobs.”

Here is how South Texas ranked against Texas and the US on Job Growth.

Job growth 2004 – 2014
South Texas – 20.1%
Texas – 21.7%
U.S. – 5.5%

In the Texas Comptroller’s Regional Snapshot, they conclude that “The South Region is one of Texas’ fastest growing and most diverse. It overlies a portion of the Eagle Ford Shale that has helped fuel the state’s energy resurgence. It also serves as a hub for shipping, farming and manufacturing. Meanwhile, tourists flock to shoreline destinations such as Corpus Christi and South Padre Island.

The region offers a dynamic workforce. Both birth and graduation rates top state averages. It has also added jobs at a faster rate than Texas as a whole, though wages lag significantly behind the state average. Rapid growth, coupled with drought conditions, has strained the region’s water supplies.

Thriving cities, agriculture and mining helped drive Texas’ largest consumption increase over the past decade. In all, the region offers much promise. It will remain relatively young and culturally dynamic  while supporting some of Texas’  key industries.”

Here is the rest of the story from the Comptroller.

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SOURCES:
http://stedc.tamucc.edu/rei/
https://www.comptroller.texas.gov/economy/docs/regions/region-10.pdf
http://eaglefordshale.com/

Slow and steady growth for the Texas economy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have said before, 2017 is looking very hopeful – reports are predicting a slow and steady growth. We may not increase at a rate that we have in the past, but we are still on the rise. This is confirmed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Austin American Statesman. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released their Regional Economic data for December 2016, and all major metro business cycles indexes increased, except for a small dip for Houston.

The Austin American Statesman reports that Texas is ready to shift into 2nd gear in 2017. According to AAS, Keith Phillips senior economist of Dallas Fed, reported that, “Texas employers should expand payrolls by 2 percent this year, about 242,000 jobs. While far lower than the state’s long-run average, which typically exceeds national job growth rates, the job gains in 2017 are expected to surpass the estimated 1.6 percent annual growth rate through November of last year.”

Phillips said, “Texas still fared better than most energy states. And the Interstate 35 corridor, particularly Dallas and Austin, remained an exception to the otherwise modest growth in Texas.”

Phillips went on to say, “job growth picked up in the second half of 2016 due to a stabilization of the energy sector,” he said. “With that positive momentum, the Texas economy enters 2017 poised to shift into ‘second gear.”

Hear first hand from Phillips on how our Texas economy will be “slightly better than last year”.

Mine Yucel, Dallas Fed’s director of research, supported this with, “Despite the sharp drop in oil prices that sent the energy industry into a tailspin over the past two years, Texas did not drop into a recession at any point. And the modest recovery in commodity prices has helped stem the bleeding of oilfield services jobs and helped buoy statewide manufacturing outlooks.”

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SOURCE:
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/econdata/metro9tab.aspx
https://youtu.be/IaoHg499HEg
http://www.mystatesman.com/business/economists-texas-economy-pick-2017-but-modestly/PY8GfgB4e0hndibj1oOK8J/?ref=cbTopWidget

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